More on Potential Shutdown Deal

November 9, 2025

  • It is important to be cautious despite the headlines.  8-9 Senate Dems will need to join with Senate R’s to get this continuing approps bill over the finish line in the Senate. Senators are speaking on the floor now.  Senator Bernie Sanders just screamed about the resolution coming before the Senate that is essentially a pathway to throw 15 million Americans off Medicaid and out of the Health Insurance exchanges due to ACA tax credits expiring, massive premium increases, and Medicaid cuts associated with the OBBA.
  • Frankly? The ‘deal’ appears more like a handshake agreement than a major deal with concessions from both sides, to open up the federal government with a mere promise to deal with ACA tax credits by December 31.  It feels like the Senate and House Dems that were holding out and insisting they would not vote for a deal like this without it being an agreement to open the government with a simultaneous deal on the tax credits, are now taking a huge gamble, kicking the can down the road after the longest federal government shutdown in the country’s history, and relying on Senator John Thune to deliver on the commitment he has apparently made to deal with the ACA subsidies by December 31.  The approps bills coming before the Senate will fund SNAP, WIC and veterans services for a full year and this is not an inclusive list of all provisions.
  • So, what do the Dems get in all of this?  The answer may be that this is the off ramp for some Dems. and particularly the 8-9 Dems that are now saying they will vote yes on this deal, that never actually wanted the shutdown to begin with.
  • Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer just spoke with reporters and said he is a ‘no’ on this procedural vote but there is said to be enough Dems that go along with Senate Republicans to get it over the finish line despite the rhetoric coming from both House Minority Leader Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Schumer who may be posturing by still insisting Republicans must do the ACA tax credits now.
  • Of course Senate Dems could drag this out, and the bill still needs to pass in the House so we may be a few days away from the actual reopening of the federal government.
  • I think it has become clear to some Dems (and especially those who are not retiring at the end of this year and so will be facing re-election in 2026) that Republicans just will not negotiate NOW on ACA tax credits in order to get the federal government open, and Dems are blinking first.
  • I have attached a document with the language from the Continuing Approps bills that apparently will come up for a procedural vote tonight to reopen the government.  I don’t see any mention in the approps bill text for an ACA tax credit extension but I will keep looking.

———

Article from Axios moments ago:

A handful of Senate Democrats on Sunday indicated they are ready to advance a package of bills that could end the government shutdown, multiple sources told Axios.

Why it matters: It is the most significant movement toward a bipartisan breakthrough in the talks to reopen the government in over a month.  At least 10 Senate Democrats are poised to support a procedural motion to advance a package of spending bills and a short-term funding measure through the end of January, multiple sources from both parties told Axios.


    • The deal includes a December vote on a Democratic proposal to extend ACA tax credits for one year, multiple sources said. It would take 60 votes to pass.


    • It also includes language aimed at providing assistance to federal employees who were laid off during the shutdown, as well as a provision to fund SNAP benefits through Sept. 30.


While no deal is final until lawmakers have voted, the agreement could end weeks of deadlock in the Senate.  And the White House is on board.


    • “The President and the White House have maintained since day one that we want the government open. This appears to be a good way to accomplish that goal,” a senior White House official said.


The big picture: Senators are in Washington for a rare weekend session, and are on track to vote Sunday on a procedural motion on a government funding package.Lawmakers have been asked to return to Washington on Sunday if they left town. And the long-awaited text of the three appropriations bills that lawmakers hope to include in the deal was released Sunday afternoon (See attached)